Northern Caribbean On Alert As Tropical Storm Ana Forms

The first tropical storm of the 2009 Atlantic Hurricane Season has formed and could impact on several islands in the north-east Caribbean by early next week.

The National Hurricane Centre says a tropical storm watch may be required for parts of the Leeward Islands on Saturday.

On its current course, TS Ana is forecast to pass uncomfortably close to or make landfall on Anguilla, Tortola and Grand Turk in the Turks and Caicos Islands early next week.

On the current path - based on the 5am EST 15 August 2009 forecast - the centre of Tropical Storm Ana is expected to pass 33 miles east of Antigua and six miles east of Anguilla on Monday morning. On Monday night the track takes it 10 miles east of Tortola in the British Virgin Islands and within 24 hours, 6 miles east of Grand Turk in the Turks and Caicos Islands.

These projections are subject to change with subsequent forecasts. The margin of error for a two-day forecast is 164 miles while for for 24 hours it is 89 miles.

At 5am EST, the centre of Tropical Storm Ana was estimated to be near 14.6 north and 46.8 west oo 1010 miles east of the Lesser Antilles.

It is travelling at 16mph towards the west and has a minimum central pressure of 1005MB. with maximum sustained winds of 40mph with higher gusts. Minimum central pressure of 1005MB.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward from the centre up to 70 miles.

The NHC says the environment is more conducive to strengthening and slow intensification is expected during the next 48 hours.

TS Ana was upgraded from Tropical Depression 2 which re-generated on Friday - one day after it was downgraded to an open tropical wave.

Source: www.caribbean360.com

Tropical Depression Forms - Expected To Strengthen

A tropical depression has formed in the eastern Atlantic Ocean and poses no threat to the Caribbean at this time.

The National Hurricane Centre (NHC) says it should strenghten in another 24 hours to become tropical storm as it continues westward for about two to three days when it should gradually turn towards the northwest as it navigates its way around the periphery of a high pressure system.

Beyond this, forecasters are uncertain.

Hurricane specialist Dr Richard Pasch says that the cyclone is currently situated over marginally warm ocean waters with weak upper level winds (warm water and weak shear are good ingredients for strengthening).

"The official forecast shows gradual strenghening over the next couple of days and is a blend of the various numerical guidance tools. As usual there is considerable uncertainty as to the strength of this system later in the forecast period. If the cyclone moves farther north than anticipated (in the current forecast) it will probably encounter stronger shear and not intensify as much as forecast. On the other hand if the system moves farther south than expected late in the (forecast) period...it will probably become stronger than anticipated...," says Pasch.

The current forecast track is for this system to curve northwest before reaching the Caribbean islands by weekend. However, that forecast is subject to change.

At 6am Eastern Standard Time, the centre of Tropical Depression Two was estimated to be near 14.4 north and 28.6 west with maximum sustained winds of 30mph, travelling towards the west at 13mph. The minimum central pressure is 1006MB.

Source: www.caribbean360.com

Hurricane Season Start Is Slow, But We're Not Off Hook

One year after Hurricane Dolly struck South Texas and became the Rio Grande Valley's most destructive storm in four decades, the tropics are decidedly quieter.

In fact the Atlantic basin has not gone this deep into hurricane season without a named storm in five years.

Add to that a maturing El Niño in the Pacific Ocean, which creates more wind shear over the Atlantic tropics and tends to depress storm activity by 20 to 40 percent, and the outlook for the rest of the 2009 season looks downright rosy.

But don't get too cocky, forecasters say.

Although the first Atlantic named storm typically forms by July 10, the real activity doesn't usually begin until August, and a lull in early season activity doesn't necessarily presage a weak overall season.

The 2004 season, for example, didn't see its first storm until Hurricane Alex began developing on July 31.

Yet after Alex the season rapidly ramped up, finishing with 15 storms and 6 major hurricanes, including Hurricane Ivan. A storm the size of Texas, Ivan was one of the 10 most intense hurricanes ever in the Atlantic basin before striking Gulf Shores, Ala., and causing $19 billion in damage.

El Niños'intensity
And while El Niños may suppress overall activity, such years can still produce savage storms. One of the three most-intense storms at a U.S. landfall, Hurricane Andrew, developed during an El Niño in 1992.

So have some of the most famed storms ever to strike Texas and Louisiana: Alicia (1983), Betsy (1965) and the great storm of 1900, which came during a severe El Niño, said Jill Hasling, president of Houston's Weather Research Center.

“There might be fewer storms during an El Niño,” she said. “But it only takes one.”

During an average Atlantic season, 10 tropical storms or hurricanes develop, but since 1995 the Atlantic has seen an upswing in activity that most scientists attribute to a long-term natural pattern.

Given this season's slow start and the onset of El Niño, most seasonal forecasters now say about 10 named storms will form, one of the lowest totals of the past 15 years.

Hostile July for storms
The official beginning of hurricane season came on June 1, but recent years have seen storms form in May.

This happens when frontal boundaries drift south into the Gulf of Mexico or off the East Coast, producing lingering areas of thunderstorms that sometimes spin into tropical storms, said Chris Hebert, lead hurricane meteorologist at ImpactWeather, a private Houston-based forecasting company.

That almost happened this year.

“We did have a few such features in May and June,” he said. “One made it to tropical depression strength, but none made it to tropical storm strength. So it was pretty close in May and June.”

But as often happens in July — and certainly what has happened this year, with all the heat — high pressure builds across the Gulf and Southeastern United States, reducing the chances of development near the United States.

July storms often form in the Caribbean at this time of year, but wind shear and other factors there have combined to create hostile conditions for storms, Hebert said.

The Bermuda High
Looking later into the season, Hebert says a semi-permanent feature called the Bermuda High, a large area of high pressure just north of the tropics, may be quite strong this year.

This would limit development in the deep tropics.

Perhaps, then, as hurricane season progresses storms will be most likely to develop closer to land in the Caribbean Sea or Gulf of Mexico, he said.

In fact, Hebert and other forecasters say such a possibility should concern emergency management experts because these storms give little warning.

Hurricane Alicia may have been bad, spinning up from a tropical depression on Aug. 15, 1983, into a Category 3 hurricane just two days later before striking Galveston, but there are worse precedents during an El Niño year.

Specifically, there's the largely forgotten Texas hurricane of 1932. That storm formed on Aug. 11 in the Gulf near the Yucatan Peninsula.

A day and a half later, a Category 4 hurricane, with 145-mph winds, slammed into Freeport.

Source: www.chron.com

NHC Tracking Invest 97-L In The Atlantic

A tropical wave located near latitude 11.9 North and longitude 41.8 West has been designated Invest 97-L and is currently being tracked by the National Hurricane Center.

The National Hurricane Center is giving 97-L a low (less than 30%) chance of becoming a tropical depression during the next 48 hours. At 8:00 a.m. Invest 97-L with maximum sustained winds of 20 mph was moving Westward at 15 - 20 mph and is approximately 1200 miles East of the Windward Islands.

Season's First Tropical Depression Forms In Atlantic

The first tropical depression of the north Atlantic's hurricane season formed Thursday and forecasters said it would likely reach tropical storm strength before petering out over open seas.

"The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm over the next day or so, but then is expected to weaken or dissipate over colder waters by Saturday," the National Hurricane Center said.

At 1500 GMT the depression was located about 500 km (311 miles) south of Providence, Rhode Island or 1,020 kilometers (634 miles) southwest of Halifax, Nova Scotia.

The depression formed even before the official June 1 start of the Atlantic hurricane season, which stretches though November 30.

Names Of Deadly 2008 Hurricanes Retired

The names Gustav, Ike and Paloma will never be associated with future hurricanes or tropical storms on account of their deadly romp through the Caribbean last year, the United States National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has announced.

The storms claimed more than 200 lives and left a trail of destruction calculated in the billions across the region from August to November 2008.

Under the normal six-year rotation, the names would have been up to be used again in 2014. However, they will be replaced by Gonzalo, Isaias and Paulette.

A NOAA spokesman said the names were retired for reasons of sensitivity.

"That's why you'll never hear the name Katrina again or Andrew, for that matter. It would be very inappropriate," Dennis Feltgen said on Friday.

Hurricane Gustav slammed into Haiti as a Category One hurricane in August, killing 77 people before tearing into Cuba as a powerful Category Four system.

More than 80 people were killed as a result of Hurricane Ike in the Caribbean. The Turks and Caicos Islands, the Southeastern Bahamas and Cuba were among the worst impacted.

The Cuban government said Paloma, which became the second strongest November hurricane on record, reaching Category 4 destroyed more than 1,400 homes and causing about US$300 million in damage on the island.

Gray Predicts Average 2009 Hurricane Season

Predictions released by Colorado State University’s of leading forecaster, Professor William Gray, calls for an average hurricane season in 2009. A press statement issued by Professor Gray and his team said that based on the potential for a weak El Nino event and an observed cooling of tropical Atlantic sea surface temperatures, the number of hurricanes developing in 2009 would decrease.

Gray indicates that this hurricane season will be an average season with six hurricanes developing; with the risk that a major hurricane making landfall in the Caribbean is average as well. The forecasters said there would be a total of 12 named storms, including six hurricanes. Of those hurricanes, two are expected to develop into at least Category Three strength, or higher.

In 2008, there were 16 named storms including eight hurricanes, five of them were major.

Professor Gray, who is beginning his 26th year forecasting hurricanes at Colorado State University said; "We expect current weak La Nina conditions to transition to neutral and perhaps weak El Nino conditions by this year's hurricane season. If El Nino conditions develop for this year's hurricane season, it would tend to increase levels of vertical wind shear and decrease levels of Atlantic hurricane activity."

Professor Gray and his team also mentioned that they have seen uncharacteristic cooling of sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic over the past few months. These cooler waters are associated with dynamic and thermodynamic factors that are less conducive for an active Atlantic hurricane season. Those factors are similar to conditions that occurred during 1951, 1968, 1976, 1985 and 2001 seasons. On average, those five seasons had average activity, and Gray and lead forecaster Phil Klotzbach predict the 2009 season will have activity in line with those years.

Invest 94L Approaching The Windward Islands

All eyes are looking eastward this afternoon as Invest 94L makes its way towards the Windward Islands. At 2:00 p.m. the area of disturbed weather was located 850 miles East of the Windward Islands near latitude 12.2 degrees North and longitude 48.8 degrees West.

Invest 94L with maximum sustained winds of 30 mph is moving towards the West at 17 mph. Shower activity associated with this area of low pressure is reported to be disorganised. However, forecasters are indicating there may be a chance of thunderstorms and also slow intensification of this system.

Invest 92L Looming Off The Windward Islands

A tropical wave located near latitude 10.7 North and longitude 44.5 West has developed a modest amount of heavy thunderstorm activity overnight. Invest 92L is showing signs of development and is currently being tracked by the National Hurricane Center.

The environment around the tropical disturbance appears favorable for intensification, except for the dry air to the west. Forecasters are predicting that Invest 92L will take at least two days to get organized and form a tropical depression. The UKMET, GFS, and ECMWF models are indicating that 92L may become a weak tropical storm by the time the disturbance crosses into the northern Lesser Antilles Islands on Wednesday or Thursday.

The National Hurricane Center is giving 92L a medium (20-50% chance) of becoming a tropical depression by Tuesday morning. At 2:00 p.m. Invest 92L with maximum sustained winds of 30 mph was moving West at 18 mph. Residents and visitors to the Lesser Antilles should prepare for the possibility of tropical storm conditions arriving as early as Wednesday.

Here Comes Tropical Storms Cristobal And Dolly

Hurricane forecasters are currently monitoring the progress of three storm systems. They are Tropical Storms Bertha, Cristobal and Dolly.
The National Hurricane Center has already issued its first advisory for the fourth tropical storm of the Atlantic Hurricane Season TS Dolly.

Tropical Storm Dolly is expected to affect the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico from its border with Belize to the Bay of Campeche. A Storm Warning is currently in effect for these territories, this means that tropical storm conditions are expected within the next 24 hours.

At 11:45 a.m. the center of Tropical Storm Dolly was located near latitude 18.4 North and longitude 84.2 West or about 270 miles (435 km) East of Chetumal, Mexico. Dolly is moving towards the North-West near 17 mph (28 km/h), A North-Westward motion is forecast during the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 45 mph (75 km/h) with higher gusts, slight strengthening is possible today. Tropical Storm force winds extend outward up to 175 miles from the center. The minimal central pressure is 1008 milibars.

An Intermediate Advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 2:00 p.m.

Tropical Disturbance - Invest 94L

A tropical disturbance (Invest 94L) in the Eastern Atlantic is currently being tracked by the National Hurricane Center and may be upgraded to a tropical depression.

At 8:00 a.m. the center of the tropical disturbance was estimated to be near latitude 8.9 North and longitude 37.2 West or about 1600 miles East of the Southern Windward Islands. Preliminary computer projections (most of them), track 94L mainly towards the West affecting the Southern Windwards in 4 - 5 days. Forecasters are predicting that it could reach hurricane status by day 3 based on the SHIPS forecast model. If it does further develop, Cristobal would be it's name.

Maximum sustained winds are near 25 mph, with some strengthening expected. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 millibars.

Increased Chance Of Rain

Residents in Barbados and the Eastern Caribbean should prepare for elevated levels of rain fall over the next couple of days as a weather disturbance approaches our area.

Forecasters are predicting an increased chance of rain over the next few days but as the disturbance moves away, rain chances will begin to decrease toward the middle of the week. There is a 50 percent chance for rain throughout our area today, with chances Monday holding at 40 percent.

According to the marine forecast, boaters can expect variable but moderate winds with higher winds and rougher sea conditions are expected near isolated showers and thunderstorms, which are predicted throughout the forecast period.

Tropical Storm Bertha Forecast To Strengthen

Tropical Storm Bertha is briskly moving westward and is forecast to strengthen. Bertha's maximum sustained winds are near 50 mph (85 kph), and forecasters said it could gradually strengthen further over the next few days.

At 11:00 a.m. today the second tropical storm of the 2008 Atlantic Hurricane season was about 1185 miles east of the northern Leeward Islands and was moving west at about 21 mph (33 kph).

It was expected to proceed on a general west-northwest track with a gradual decrease in forward speed. As Bertha remains over the waters of the Central Tropical Atlantic it is much too early to determine if Bertha will eventually affect any land areas.

Some computer forecasting models predicted Bertha's top winds would reach the 74 mph (119 kph) threshold to become a hurricane in three or four days.

Tropical Storm Bertha Is Born

Tropical Storm Bertha is born, according to the National Hurricane Center. The storm has sustained winds near 40 mph and was located off the coast of Africa, about 190 miles south-southeast of the Cape Verde Islands.

Bertha is the second storm of the 2008 Atlantic Hurricane season and is moving at about 14 mph. Forecasters say the storm doesn’t appear likely to become a hurricane, and should stay well away from the Caribbean island chain.

Tropical Depression 2 Forms In The Atlantic

The tropical disturbance in the eastern Atlantic has been upgraded to the second tropical depression of the 2008 Atlantic Hurricane season.

At 5:00 a.m. the center of tropical depression 2 was estimated to be near latitude 12.6 north and longitude 22.7 west or about 2,479 miles (3989 km) east of the Windward Islands. The depression is moving towards the west-northwest near 9 mph and this general motion with some increase in forward speed is expected for the next couple of days.

Maximum sustained winds are near 35 mph... 55 km/h with higher gusts. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours and the depression could become a tropical storm later today. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1008 millibars, residents in the eastern Caribbean should continue to monitor the progress of this system as it develops. An advisory will be issued by the National Hurricane Center at 11:00 a.m.

Strong Tropical Wave Off Cape Verde Islands

A strong tropical wave is off the coast of west Africa near the Cape Verde Islands along 17 degrees West and south of 19 degrees North. The wave is estimated to be moving westwards at 15 knots. A 1011 millibar surface low is situated along the axis near 11 degrees North... very near a recent burst of deep convection.

This wave is rather vigorous exhibiting a well defined cyclonic turning and scattered moderate convection within 240 nautical miles either side of the axis. This wave will be closely monitored for further development.

Issued by: National Hurricane Center - 205 p.m. Tuesday July 01 2008.