Northern Caribbean On Alert As Tropical Storm Ana Forms

The first tropical storm of the 2009 Atlantic Hurricane Season has formed and could impact on several islands in the north-east Caribbean by early next week.

The National Hurricane Centre says a tropical storm watch may be required for parts of the Leeward Islands on Saturday.

On its current course, TS Ana is forecast to pass uncomfortably close to or make landfall on Anguilla, Tortola and Grand Turk in the Turks and Caicos Islands early next week.

On the current path - based on the 5am EST 15 August 2009 forecast - the centre of Tropical Storm Ana is expected to pass 33 miles east of Antigua and six miles east of Anguilla on Monday morning. On Monday night the track takes it 10 miles east of Tortola in the British Virgin Islands and within 24 hours, 6 miles east of Grand Turk in the Turks and Caicos Islands.

These projections are subject to change with subsequent forecasts. The margin of error for a two-day forecast is 164 miles while for for 24 hours it is 89 miles.

At 5am EST, the centre of Tropical Storm Ana was estimated to be near 14.6 north and 46.8 west oo 1010 miles east of the Lesser Antilles.

It is travelling at 16mph towards the west and has a minimum central pressure of 1005MB. with maximum sustained winds of 40mph with higher gusts. Minimum central pressure of 1005MB.

Tropical storm force winds extend outward from the centre up to 70 miles.

The NHC says the environment is more conducive to strengthening and slow intensification is expected during the next 48 hours.

TS Ana was upgraded from Tropical Depression 2 which re-generated on Friday - one day after it was downgraded to an open tropical wave.

Source: www.caribbean360.com

Tropical Depression Forms - Expected To Strengthen

A tropical depression has formed in the eastern Atlantic Ocean and poses no threat to the Caribbean at this time.

The National Hurricane Centre (NHC) says it should strenghten in another 24 hours to become tropical storm as it continues westward for about two to three days when it should gradually turn towards the northwest as it navigates its way around the periphery of a high pressure system.

Beyond this, forecasters are uncertain.

Hurricane specialist Dr Richard Pasch says that the cyclone is currently situated over marginally warm ocean waters with weak upper level winds (warm water and weak shear are good ingredients for strengthening).

"The official forecast shows gradual strenghening over the next couple of days and is a blend of the various numerical guidance tools. As usual there is considerable uncertainty as to the strength of this system later in the forecast period. If the cyclone moves farther north than anticipated (in the current forecast) it will probably encounter stronger shear and not intensify as much as forecast. On the other hand if the system moves farther south than expected late in the (forecast) period...it will probably become stronger than anticipated...," says Pasch.

The current forecast track is for this system to curve northwest before reaching the Caribbean islands by weekend. However, that forecast is subject to change.

At 6am Eastern Standard Time, the centre of Tropical Depression Two was estimated to be near 14.4 north and 28.6 west with maximum sustained winds of 30mph, travelling towards the west at 13mph. The minimum central pressure is 1006MB.

Source: www.caribbean360.com