A tropical depression has formed in the eastern Atlantic Ocean and poses no threat to the Caribbean at this time.
The National Hurricane Centre (NHC) says it should strenghten in another 24 hours to become tropical storm as it continues westward for about two to three days when it should gradually turn towards the northwest as it navigates its way around the periphery of a high pressure system.
Beyond this, forecasters are uncertain.
Hurricane specialist Dr Richard Pasch says that the cyclone is currently situated over marginally warm ocean waters with weak upper level winds (warm water and weak shear are good ingredients for strengthening).
"The official forecast shows gradual strenghening over the next couple of days and is a blend of the various numerical guidance tools. As usual there is considerable uncertainty as to the strength of this system later in the forecast period. If the cyclone moves farther north than anticipated (in the current forecast) it will probably encounter stronger shear and not intensify as much as forecast. On the other hand if the system moves farther south than expected late in the (forecast) period...it will probably become stronger than anticipated...," says Pasch.
The current forecast track is for this system to curve northwest before reaching the Caribbean islands by weekend. However, that forecast is subject to change.
At 6am Eastern Standard Time, the centre of Tropical Depression Two was estimated to be near 14.4 north and 28.6 west with maximum sustained winds of 30mph, travelling towards the west at 13mph. The minimum central pressure is 1006MB.
Source: www.caribbean360.com
The National Hurricane Centre (NHC) says it should strenghten in another 24 hours to become tropical storm as it continues westward for about two to three days when it should gradually turn towards the northwest as it navigates its way around the periphery of a high pressure system.
Beyond this, forecasters are uncertain.
Hurricane specialist Dr Richard Pasch says that the cyclone is currently situated over marginally warm ocean waters with weak upper level winds (warm water and weak shear are good ingredients for strengthening).
"The official forecast shows gradual strenghening over the next couple of days and is a blend of the various numerical guidance tools. As usual there is considerable uncertainty as to the strength of this system later in the forecast period. If the cyclone moves farther north than anticipated (in the current forecast) it will probably encounter stronger shear and not intensify as much as forecast. On the other hand if the system moves farther south than expected late in the (forecast) period...it will probably become stronger than anticipated...," says Pasch.
The current forecast track is for this system to curve northwest before reaching the Caribbean islands by weekend. However, that forecast is subject to change.
At 6am Eastern Standard Time, the centre of Tropical Depression Two was estimated to be near 14.4 north and 28.6 west with maximum sustained winds of 30mph, travelling towards the west at 13mph. The minimum central pressure is 1006MB.
Source: www.caribbean360.com
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